February 2024

Portuguese Housing Market Survey

NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK REMAINS FAIRLY SUBDUED BUT TWELVE MONTH EXPECTATIONS STRENGTHEN

  • Buyer demand loses momentum slightly
  • Near-term sales outlook appears flat
  • 12-month price expectations pick-up

Tarrant Parsons

RICS Senior Economist

“Portugal’s political climate continues to create uncertainty around the outlook for the economy. This is perhaps being reflected in sentiment across the housing market which has been set back slightly compared to the preceding month. Nevertheless, improving global economic conditions, falling inflation rates and expectations for loosening ECB monetary policy should support the residential property market going forward.”

Ricardo Guimarães

Director at Ci

"In February, Confidencial Imobiliário’s House Price Index showed a 0.6% price increase. This result is consistent with the smoothing pattern registered in recent months, with the annual growth rate decreasing from 17% to 11% during the last 12 months. Despite that, over the last three months, the index inverted its short-term path reaching a quarterly variation of +3.6%, after being at just +0.4% in October. Those numbers support the survey’s latest results, reflecting more positive demand behaviour, in turn bringing sales expectations into positive territory. Interest rates are expected to start falling in the coming months, and that is improving buyers’ confidence, which is putting additional pressure on prices.”

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